Yemen stands on the brink of an even deeper crisis, as a shocking turn of events in the south has pitted two powerful Gulf allies—Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—against each other in an unprecedented direct confrontation. But here's where it gets controversial: while both nations initially intervened to support Yemen's internationally recognized government in its long-running civil war, their alliance has fractured, with each now backing rival factions on the ground. One of these factions, the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), is now pushing for the independence of a breakaway state in southern Yemen, a move that threatens to partition the already war-torn nation.
And this is the part most people miss: the conflict isn’t just about territorial control—it’s a complex web of political ambitions, regional influence, and resource dominance. On Friday, tensions boiled over when the UAE-backed forces declared a 'war' had begun, accusing Saudi-backed troops of launching attacks alongside airstrikes by the Saudi air force. This escalation comes after years of devastating conflict that began in 2014, plunging Yemen—already one of the world’s poorest countries—into a humanitarian catastrophe marked by deadly violence and one of the worst hunger crises globally.
To understand how we got here, let’s rewind. In 2014, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels seized control of much of northern Yemen, including the capital Sanaa. The conflict intensified in 2015 when a coalition of Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, launched a military campaign to restore the government’s authority. While a ceasefire has de-escalated fighting with the Houthis in recent years, the alliance between Gulf powers has unraveled. The Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), formed in 2022 to unite anti-Houthi factions, has weakened, while the UAE-backed STC has consolidated control over most of southern Yemen.
Here’s where opinions start to diverge: the STC’s recent military offensive, which began on December 2, has been labeled a 'rebellion' by PLC head Rashad al-Alimi, who warns it risks fracturing Yemen further. The STC, however, argues its actions are necessary to 'restore stability' in the south. The conflict escalated further with airstrikes by the Saudi-led coalition, including one on Friday that killed seven people at an STC military camp in the oil-rich Hadramawt province. This followed accusations that the UAE had supplied military equipment to the separatists, claims the UAE denies.
In a surprising twist, the UAE agreed to withdraw its forces from Yemen after the Yemeni government canceled a joint defense treaty and ordered Emirati troops to leave. But does this signify a retreat? Not according to Farea al-Muslimi, a researcher at Chatham House, who argues the UAE’s physical absence won’t diminish its influence. 'The UAE hasn’t had a significant troop presence in Yemen since 2019,' he notes, 'relying instead on special forces and a network of proxies.'
For Yemenis, the escalating conflict is a source of deep anxiety. 'People are stockpiling goods like flour and rice, and staying indoors,' says Mohamed from Mukalla. 'Everyone is glued to the news, moment by moment.' The human cost of this conflict is staggering: Yemen’s 40 million people face the world’s third-worst hunger crisis, with the UN estimating 377,000 conflict-related deaths by 2021, including 259,000 children under five.
While outsiders frame this as a proxy war between Gulf powers, insiders see it as the culmination of long-standing tensions. The STC’s ambitions have grown since expanding its control over the south, and its leader, Aidarous Al-Zubaidi, has consistently demanded independence. 'He won’t give up,' says Mr. Muslimi. STC spokesperson Anwar al-Tamimi echoes this, stating, 'Our goal has always been clear: an independent state for the south. It’s the people’s right to choose their fate.'
Here’s the million-dollar question: Will Saudi Arabia accept the STC’s assurances that an independent south won’t threaten its security? Or will it double down to reclaim control? The stakes are high, as Mr. Muslimi warns, 'Imagine the UK and France going to war—that’s how serious this is for the region.'
What do you think? Is the STC’s push for independence justified, or does it risk further destabilizing Yemen? Share your thoughts in the comments—this is a debate that needs more voices.
