New Zealand businesses are walking a tightrope of uncertainty, all thanks to one man: Donald Trump. His erratic tariff policies have left companies in a state of constant anxiety, struggling to plan for the future. Just when they think they’ve got a handle on things, Trump pulls the rug out from under them with another sudden reversal. Take his recent decision to cancel tariffs on key imports like beef and kiwifruit—on the surface, it’s a win for many businesses. But here’s where it gets tricky: even good news feels temporary when the rules of the game keep changing.
John Ballingall, an economist at Sense Partners, puts it bluntly: ‘The frequent policy shifts are making life incredibly difficult for businesses. When there’s this much uncertainty, companies hesitate to invest or hire.’ And this is the part most people miss—it’s not just about today’s tariffs; it’s about the long-term ripple effects. When the global economic landscape is as unpredictable as a Trump tweet, making big decisions feels like gambling.
Ballingall explains, ‘Right now, the U.S. economy is a wild card, and that makes long-term planning nearly impossible. Businesses are nervous, and they’re bracing for Trump to change his mind again.’* And they’re not wrong—Trump’s latest move could be a preview of what’s to come. But here’s where it gets controversial: Is Trump’s flip-flopping a sign of weakness, or is he strategically responding to voter frustration over rising costs?
Ballingall suggests the latter. ‘U.S. consumers—and voters—are growing increasingly frustrated with the high cost of living. That’s likely what drove the cancellation of these tariffs.’ If inflation keeps climbing, as many predict, we could see more tariffs lifted. And this is the part that should have the Trump administration sweating: With midterm elections looming, the last thing they want is to face voters in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis.
‘The fact that voters are fixating on these issues is a red flag for the administration,’ Ballingall notes. ‘They’re running out of time to ease the pressure before the elections.’ So, what does this mean for New Zealand businesses? They’re stuck in a holding pattern, waiting to see which way the wind blows next.
But here’s a thought-provoking question for you: Is Trump’s unpredictability a necessary evil in today’s volatile global economy, or is he doing more harm than good? Let us know what you think in the comments—this is one debate that’s far from over.
